Liquidity

Liquidity & Price Picture

Futu's ADR has compounded extraordinarily — up 81% in the last twelve months and 226% over three years — but the parabolic move has stalled. A death cross fired on 2026-03-12 when the 50-day moving average rolled below the 200-day, the price sits roughly 3% under its 200-day at $159.89, and a 14% one-month bounce has yet to reclaim trend. This is a stock in a regime change, not a continuation.

Figures shown in the trading currency of the FUTU ADR (USD on NASDAQ). The native reporting currency is HKD; ratios, margins, and multiples are unitless and unchanged across the two files.

1. Price snapshot

Current price ($)

160

YTD return (%)

-10.4

1-yr return (%)

81.1

52-wk range pos. (%)

63.6

30d realized vol (%)

48.6

2. Lifetime price action — 50/200 SMA

Loading...

Caption: Price is below the 200-day SMA ($159.89 vs $164.93). After two and a half years of trending higher, FUTU has moved into a corrective regime since early 2026 — the multi-year uptrend has paused, not reversed.

3. Relative strength — note on benchmark

The pipeline did not return usable benchmark data (SPY series empty, no sector ETF available for capital-markets-Asia). Absolute performance is the substitute, and it carries the message: 1-yr +81%, 3-yr +226%, 5-yr -10% — meaning the multi-year compounding came almost entirely in the last 18 months. There is no comparison-base for whether this beats peers; the read across to fundamentals is that recent revenue and earnings momentum has been the price catalyst, and a fade in that momentum (which the death cross hints at) is the risk.

4. Momentum — RSI(14) + MACD histogram

Loading...
Loading...

Caption: RSI sits at 57 — neutral, with no oversold signal during the recent dip. MACD histogram is positive at +0.44 but has compressed sharply from a peak of +2.76 three weeks ago, meaning short-term momentum is fading even as the line stays above signal. Near-term picture is a weakening bounce, not a fresh impulse leg.

5. Volume & conviction

Loading...
No Results

Caption: Every one of the top-five volume spikes clusters in late-September and early-October 2024 around the PBoC stimulus announcements that re-priced China-exposed names. There has been no comparable conviction event since — the recent bounce off the March 2026 lows has come on average-or-thinner volume, which weakens the case for a sustained breakout.

6. Volatility regime

Loading...

Caption: Realized vol at 48.6% sits between the 10-year p20 (44.7%, calm) and p50 (61.2%, normal) — slightly elevated, but well below the p80 stressed band (87%). The market is not pricing crisis; it is pricing a normal post-rally digestion phase. ATR(14) at $5.83 implies a typical day moves the position by roughly 3.6% of price.

7. Institutional liquidity panel

For buy-side sizing: can a fund move size into or out of FUTU without market impact?

ADV 20d (shares)

1,256,395

ADV 20d ($)

192,194,356

ADV 60d (shares)

1,574,451

Annual turnover (%)

350.0
No Results

Caption: Median daily intraday range over the last 60 sessions is 3.2% of price — well above the 2% trigger, so impact cost on large orders is materially elevated. A fund can comfortably enter or exit positions up to roughly 1% of market cap ($226M / ~1.4M shares) within five trading days at a 20% ADV participation cap; a 2% position requires twelve sessions and is impractical at the 10% participation level (23 days). Annual turnover of ~350% of share count masks the impact-cost reality — the tape is fast but the bid-ask is wide.

8. Technical scorecard + stance

No Results